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Events of seismic proportion wreak destruction and yield lasting change. However, contrary to the tone of my Outlook inbox, there are few lighting emergencies. We aren’t faced with lighting tsunamis and earthquakes. We are an industry more accustomed to gradual change. However, incremental shifts can creep up on us like the frog in a slowly heated pot of water. If the temperature rises gradually, the frog does not jump out. His leaps are over before he senses the emergency. Lighting is a sedentary industry. We have few advance warning systems because we haven’t needed any.
The accelerated pace of change and new threats described here should shake our complacency. Survivors will no longer conduct business as usual. Depending on our perspective, these major events may not appear threatening. A train or car viewed from a distance is small but quickly can encompass your entire field of view, or worse.
To bring value to students, an educator must have relevant information or insight to share. Good educators by necessity are good researchers. They often plot trends, analyze data and position themselves to be knowledgeable on new topics so that they can inform their students. Some subjects change little with time. Classes on basics of electricity, color and light, methods of optical control, how a ballast functions, etc., are similar in content wherever they are offered with the teachers’ skills being a more significant variable. When teaching new information, the effective instructor needs to be better informed than his attendees. That can put the educator on the front lines reporting important information back to the troops. At times of increased activity the teacher has to filter and prioritize what is most important for others to know.
We met today to plan our 2010 Calendar for the Lighting Solutions Center. Typically, the predictable is disposed with quickly. Fundamentals classes are always in demand, application-based sessions (office, retail, schools, etc.) get peppered through the months. Industry conferences and events are layered in, and then it gets tricky. This year was different. It took us hours to get started. We critiqued the previous year, the changes to our industry and attendee needs for longer than ever before. The passion and opinions were strong and could not wait. A shameless geek fest of issues emerged, revealing shifts, trends and drivers that will spark a search for knowledge.
TRACKING CHANGES
There are many ways to monitor changes in our industry. Working on the IES Progress Committee has been a favorite activity of mine since joining in 1991. We are tasked with reporting on “advancements to the art and science of lighting” every year. Some years we have reviewed the boring incremental “progress” of a CFL that is the smallest available by 1⁄32 of an inch or backwards ideas like cool white T8s. Occasionally this group of lighting devotees is blown away by exciting game-changers or inundated with submittals of emerging technologies.
The biggest trend in 2006 was LED-related submittals, which made up 16 percent of the total. In 2007, they Lighting Research & Education November 2009 still dominated at 20 percent, while 2008 submissions were 33 percent LED-related. The 2009 count was more than 40 percent. At this rate we will be at 100 percent LED in a few years. New chips, drivers, optics, fixtures and standards will all require training and education. Leading manufacturers are still scrambling for dominance in this market.
Perhaps it won’t ultimately matter. Optoelectronic sources come from semiconductor manufacturers. Who were their customers prior to architectural lighting use? Not just Royal Philips Electronics, Inc., but Toshiba, Sharp, Samsung and Panasonic all have lighting products now. Sharp has 11 LED area fixture types being sold in Japan, and Panasonic is researching architectural applications of their new lighting products. Toshiba announced a new Lighting Systems Division in September. Let’s look at their yearly sales (according to www. hoovers.com). Panasonic $113 billion, Samsung $105 billion, Toshiba $77 billion, Philips $37 billion and Sharp $34 billion (Hitachi is near $110 billion, LG is $81 billion and Sony $77 billion, but they are not significantly involved in architectural lighting yet). Chip manufacturers like Nichia ($2.3 billion) and Cree ($567 million) are dwarfed by these financials. The big four lighting fixture manufacturers annual lighting sales combined are less than 1⁄10 of Panasonics’ total sales. Chump change may be overstating our proportionate acquisition cost, but if the shift continues toward solid-state lighting, the assimilation of our industry into these firms appears inevitable.
What new technology will follow the LED revolution and who understands it best? OLEDs may be the general light source to replace conventional wide distribution sources such as fluorescent and HID. Lab results are showing up to 102 lumens per watt and one OLED fixture claims to have met Energy Star criteria. Many OLED products are on the market now. Sony is using this technology for televisions, and Samsung has a light fixture that can also show video. Philips has clear OLEDs that are opaque and emit light when turned on. Lighting manufacturers have hired physicists to research these new ways to generate light, but the manufacturers are unlikely to have the time or resources to dominate these new markets for long. Some lighting manufacturers still refer to their companies as tin benders, a backwards thinking death knell.
Nanotechnology is also outside of our expertise. The first nanotechnology lighting products will be sold later this year. Standards are being written for QE (quantum efficiency) to compare products as they position for market penetration. The first products will replace phosphors in LED lamps increasing the efficacy and allowing warm color temperatures with high efficacy now elusive with LED offerings. These products, called Quantum Dots, are not produced by the big three lamp companies. How many of us have a subscription to the Journal of Materials Chemistry where this technology is discussed? The distance from these industries to ours may not prove to be a cost-effective trip. Survival will come from acquisition and it is clear from the financials above who would be the buyer.
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
The combination of LED exterior lighting with solar-generated power was evident at LIGHTFAIR and the IES Street & Area Lighting Conference this year. Wind-powered LED fixtures have been used in China for years. The U.S. generates only .5 percent of its energy from wind and solar energy. This will change soon. According to Deutsche Bank, the cost of solar generated and conventional electricity will be equal in 2014. Efficiencies of solar are increasing. As kilowatt hour rates climb, the ROI and LCCA of alternative energy become more compelling.
The American Recovery & Reinvestment Act and other rebates are further stimulating alternative energy growth. Lighting Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) and distributors are shifting toward solar and wind products including installation. One lighting ESCO owner told me that solar and wind are now 30 percent of his business and growing. Our industry has much to learn. Teaching about the interrelationship between lighting and alternative energy sources will keep our educational facilities busy for years. When we finally study the health effects of melatonin-suppressing high color temperature sources like LEDs it may be yet another gamechanger for us to talk about.
The LEED Standards reward alternative energy. Green building is a seismic shift. McGraw-Hill estimates that it will increase from a $12 billion market in 2008 to between $96 and $140 billion in 2013. Is there any other area of our industry or economy growing at this rate? We can anticipate a shortage of green ink as corporate marketing divisions posture their products and services as greener-than-thou. New construction has stalled, forcing a very strong paradigm shift for the lighting industry toward retrofitting and relighting our existing buildings. The USGBC claims that $160 billion annually can be saved by these upgrades. This potential has gotten attention in Washington with a focus in the ARRA/Stimulus Bill on building renovation. An economist at McGraw-Hill told me that he thinks that 70 percent or more of the construction funding from ARRA for buildings is for improving existing building efficiency.
Most lighting manufacturers sell through agencies that have traditionally counted on new construction. They have been slow to shift their business models toward upgrading existing buildings and many are downsizing. Real estate vacancies—both commercial and residential—would indicate that the situation is long term. The success of lighting ESCOs who typically target energy-efficiency upgrades further validates the shift away from new construction. Important to this discussion is that “retrofit” used to refer to upgrading lamps and ballasts. Legislative restrictions mandate such low energy consumption that in most cases luminaires must be upgraded to comply, not just lamps and ballasts. A three-lamp parabolic fixture with the most efficient lamps and ballasts will not meet the 2004 code, but a high-efficiency two-lamp unit will. For decades, most fixtures sold on price, not efficiency. Higher reflectance materials, precise optics and other premium technologies increase efficiency more than existing commodity low-cost products. It’s not just about lamps and ballasts anymore and educators must tell the story.
WATCH LEGISLATION
Energy savings are the carrot and legislation is the stick. The stick is getting bigger and hitting our industry harder than ever. ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1-1999 ceases to be the federal minimum standard next year. December 2010 will see our nation shift to the 2004 version of 90.1. This forces exterior application wattage restrictions into effect and further reduces interior levels. Twenty-eight states have already adopted the 2004 standard and they will likely be the first states to shift to the newest 2010 version of 90.1. The goal for 2010 is an overall additional reduction of 30 percent over the 2004 wattage limitations. Bi-level exterior dimming controls for efficiency will be mandated if the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 passes as planned. By the time this goes to print you should know if the bill has passed and what the lumen-perwatt requirements for street and roadway fixtures (not already covered by 90.1) are. These changes require ongoing education for our industry.
Despite the strong state and federal emphasis on legislating outdoor lighting efficiency there is an issue of perception versus reality that is worth noting. Many of our utilities have difficulty providing enough electricity during peak demand times during the day. Most of our nation’s electricity comes from coal and gas, and power plants cannot be shut down every night because they must be online to ramp up for peak demand during the day. There are no brownouts in the evening because the minimum levels utilities require to stay on generate excess power during nighttime.
Last July, Senator Roderick Wright, CA, spoke to this issue during a hearing on mandating an 80 lumensper- watt minimum on exterior lighting fixtures (it was voted down). Senator Wright chaired the Assembly Committee on Utilities and Commerce (U&C) which held legislative jurisdiction over electricity in California. He said that there is so much extra electricity generated in the evening in northern California that they have to pay Las Vegas to take the excess off the grid. He pointed out that using more efficient fixtures at night would actually cost them more. Lowering wattage will save money for customers unless they are on a fixed rate like many municipalities. It will not lower carbon emissions or, in most cases, result in any savings for the utility. Eventually, exterior lighting energy reductions may be necessary and significant. For now there are misconceptions and a counterintuitive situation that will keep educators busy.
Lighting events of seismic proportion can wreak destruction and will yield lasting change. Many of the topics discussed in this article have the potential to be seismic. Some companies will be blindsided and devastated by these shifts. Change is certain. The accelerated pace of significant change requires educators to be swift in developing new curricula. These changes require continuous education for lighting professionals to be able to position themselves in the best location during these impending seismic events. Stay away from the epicenter.
November 09 |
